Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 3.230652 3.486452 3.775738 4.132785 4.570259 5.101659 5.818784
2025-02-16 2.902957 3.231400 3.630593 4.169839 4.913868 5.972384 7.770893
2025-02-23 2.640109 2.983828 3.417111 4.031763 4.941696 6.381162 9.334133
2025-03-02 2.502605 2.866863 3.341478 4.046772 5.168143 7.166919 12.488428
2025-03-09 2.387029 2.762281 3.263715 4.036858 5.342394 7.944938 17.486021
2025-03-16 2.270135 2.644063 3.151958 3.954551 5.368044 8.437433 24.138779
2025-03-23 2.218256 2.607957 3.150105 4.039207 5.713084 9.940481 80.511484
2025-03-30 2.117946 2.497715 3.030268 3.914729 5.619737 10.187467 2285.133516
2025-04-06 2.024853 2.392384 2.910271 3.777053 5.472810 10.193946 NaN
2025-04-13 1.954184 2.314976 2.826862 3.693133 5.424643 10.535800 NaN
2025-04-20 1.928602 2.299573 2.834944 3.766712 5.737002 12.634844 NaN
2025-04-27 1.923101 2.312028 2.885747 3.922056 6.294455 17.498763 NaN
2025-05-04 1.883984 2.275331 2.859706 3.937953 6.528160 22.002466 NaN
2025-05-11 1.850903 2.245970 2.843485 3.971324 6.830799 31.074983 NaN
2025-05-18 1.790138 2.172807 2.751987 3.846625 6.630641 30.824976 NaN
2025-05-25 1.759672 2.143647 2.730617 3.860204 6.865303 47.682719 NaN
2025-06-01 1.727264 2.110117 2.699915 3.851235 7.029118 88.725667 NaN
2025-06-08 1.685399 2.060739 2.640328 3.776689 6.949829 121.953124 NaN
2025-06-15 1.672355 2.054459 2.652231 3.853360 7.440785 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 1.628446 1.999478 2.579096 3.740562 7.182854 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 1.584218 1.943047 2.501904 3.615359 6.862963 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 1.549966 1.901183 2.448303 3.538811 6.723045 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 1.541324 1.898278 2.460640 3.605936 7.161809 NaN NaN